Watching a wildfire in British Columbia (BC),
I believe that 2026 is expected to be another banner year for fires in British Columbia and elsewhere. I have two research papers and, at the end of this posting, an art exhibition all of them concerning fire.
A December 3, 2025 University of British Columbia at Okanagan (UBCO) news release (also on EurekAlert), Note: Links have been removed,
How wildfires spread is more variable and unpredictable than Canada’s standard models assume, new research from UBC Okanagan data scientists shows.
Ladan Tazik, lead author of a new study in Fire and UBC Okanagan doctoral student, used advanced computer vision tools to capture fire behaviour with a level of detail that wasn’t possible even a few years ago.
Her work sheds light on the random elements of fire movement—information that could reshape how fire behaviour is modelled and forecasted in an era of worsening wildfire seasons.
“Image processing techniques let us quantify fire behaviour in real time, including the parts that don’t follow consistent patterns,” says Tazik. “By capturing the randomness in how fires spread, we can build models that better reflect reality and help improve decision-making during active fire events.”
Tazik led the design, analysis and modelling that form the backbone of the study.
She used the “Segment Anything Model”, a state-of-the-art AI tool, to extract fire perimeters from experimental burn videos frame by frame to study fire spread dynamics.
This allowed her to study directional fire spread on sloped terrain without assuming the fire behaves predictably or spreads in a simple line.
Her analysis confirmed something firefighters may know instinctively: fires race uphill. But when she compared her measurements with the values used in Canada’s official Fire Behaviour Prediction System, the numbers didn’t always line up.
Real fires often moved faster, and the influence of slope wasn’t consistent from place to place.
She tested the method on ponderosa pine and Douglas fir fuels often used in fire research.
This highlights that small differences in fuel, wind and terrain can add to the unpredictability of fire and introduce important variations in how it spreads.
Even under nearly identical conditions, the flames didn’t behave the same way twice.
In practical terms, that means most fire spread is shaped by randomness—far more than today’s deterministic models capture.
“These results show that we need to pair every spread estimate with a measure of uncertainty,” Tazik explains. “Simply multiplying by a slope factor isn’t enough. Fire is dynamic, and our models should acknowledge that.”
Research supervisor Dr. W. John Braun says the project demonstrates how emerging computer vision tools can transform wildfire science.
“Tazik proposed innovative ways to tackle this difficult modelling problem,” he says. “Her work shows how high-resolution perimeter data and advanced modelling can help us understand the real variability in fire behaviour. That’s essential if we want to move toward more probabilistic, data-driven prediction systems.”
The study also included contributions from Dr. John R.J. Thompson, Assistant Professor of Data Science, Mathematics and Statistics, as well as other partners who provided the experimental and field video datasets.
While the fuel experiments supported the research, Tazik alone led the segmentation and modelling components.
Tazik says the next step is to expand the approach to more fuel types and fire conditions and use airborne or satellite imagery to study fire spread dynamics.
With more Earth observation and remote sensing tools available, she sees an opportunity to build models that better capture wildfire dynamics while embracing the inherent uncertainty of fire, rather than smoothing it away.
“Fires don’t behave perfectly,” she says. “Our tools shouldn’t pretend they do.”
Here’s a link to and a citation for the paper,
Stochastic Behaviour of Directional Fire Spread: A Segmentation-Based Analysis of Experimental Burns by Ladan Tazik, Willard J. Braun, John R. J. Thompson, and Geoffrey Goetz. Fire 2025, 8(10), 384; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/fire8100384 Published: 25 September 2025
This paper is open access.
Next up,
Invasive grasses
What happens after a wildfire can be dangerous according to a March 19, 2026 University of British Columbia (UBC) news release (also on EurekAlert), Note: Links have been removed,
After a wildfire, the flames may fade, but the danger does not. A new study by UBC researchers reveals that burned landscapes remain vulnerable for years, with large areas still bare and at risk of invasion by fast-growing, fire-prone grasses.
The research, one of the largest vegetation trajectory studies in the world, monitored landscapes two years after major wildfires in interior B.C. While some native plants returned, recovery was slower and more fragile than expected.
One of the most pressing concerns is invasive grasses, which germinate early in spring, dry out during the hottest months, and act as dry runways that spread flames at highway speed—a dynamic that contributed to the 2023 Lahaina fire in Maui and is increasingly likely in B.C.’s Interior.
“Areas that looked like post-apocalyptic ground right after the fire are now blanketed in cheatgrass. Once you can see the invasion, the opportunity for rapid response may already be gone,” said Dr. Jennifer Grenz, senior author and restoration ecologist and a member of Lytton First Nation.
Published in Fire Ecology, the study examined vegetation recovery two years after the 46,000-hectare McKay Creek wildfire near Lillooet, conducted in partnership with six Northern St’át’imc communities on whose territory the fire burned. It was made possible by years of pre-fire invasive plant monitoring collected by the Lillooet Regional Invasive Species Society in collaboration with the BC Provincial Invasive Plant Program and local Indigenous communities—rare baseline data that allowed the team to test long-held assumptions about post-fire invasion.
Elevation plays a critical role in recovery
The analysis showed a clear elevation trend in post-fire plant recovery. At lower elevations, where conditions are hotter, drier and more accessible to human activity, drought-tolerant invasive species quickly gain a foothold. Heavy traffic from hikers, ATVs [all terrain vehicles], hunters and road maintenance equipment continually introduces new seeds, giving invaders like cheatgrass little competition in the valley bottoms.
Moving upslope, cooler temperatures and lingering moisture create less favourable conditions for invasive species. Here, native shrubs are beginning to regenerate, slowing the advance of non-native plants. Recovery is still slow, but native vegetation is re‑emerging where roots survived the fire.
“In a new era of mega-fires, understanding where and how vegetation recovers could determine the intensity of the next wildfire,” said Dr. Grenz.
Controlling invasive plants
With post-fire restoration resources limited, the researchers highlight three actions that could substantially reduce risk: vehicle and boot washing stations at fire access points to slow seed spread; targeted seeding or planting of native species along roads and high-risk corridors; and early herbicide treatment of small infestations before they expand.
The team plans to continue tracking recovery trends to help communities and land managers make informed decisions.
“A landscape left to invasive grasses after one fire becomes more likely to burn again,” said Virginia Oeggerli, a PhD student in Dr. Grenz’s lab who led the study. “Recovery is part of prevention.”
Here’s a link to and a citation for the paper,
Factors influencing early post-wildfire vegetation and implications for invasive plant management in the interior of British Columbia, Canada by Virginia V. Oeggerli, Tara G. Martin, Suzanne W. Simard & Jennifer Grenz. fire ecol (2026). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-026-00463-x Published: 05 March 2026
This paper is open access.
Smoke, fire, and an art exhibit
The mention of death and rebirth give this exhibition a timely quality during the Easter 2026 season. Oddly with an art exhibition titled, “The Structure of Smoke” at the University of British Columbia’s Morris and Helen Belkin Art Gallery doesn’t include some participation from the university’s faculty of forestry and environmental stewardship (FES).
Here’s more about The Structure of Smoke from the Belkin Gallery’s exhibition page, Note: This is written for an academic arts audience and not the average punter (i.e., someone like me)
Through the lens of contemporary artists’ engagement with the metaphorical and literal processes of fire and the spaces it creates and displaces, The Structure of Smoke includes works that problematize the poetic, structural and political aspects of fire. These works complicate the inherent contradictions of wildness and domestication, technological progress and social control, colonial conditions, rebirth and death [emphasis mine]. Holding a smoked mirror to contemporary society, the works in this exhibition offer ways to undo the familiar in how we approach our uncertain future.
Speculative in nature, The Structure of Smoke is associative, contextual and driven by artistic practices that disturb existing power relations and question their own conditions and structures. With a focus on ecologies, interconnectedness and relationality the works and curatorial premise consider relating to land, community, family and wildfire ecologies including the non-human. As we have seen with the migration of smoke across the globe and the birth of a regular fire season, the ways in which we live with fire require new strategies that embrace specific Indigenous and ecological knowledges and the ability to develop relations with fire beyond the spectacle and devastation of its impacts.
[These artists are represented:
asinnajaq, Geoffrey Farmer, Amber Frid-Jimenez, Art Hunter, Brian Jungen,
Heraa Khan, Germaine Koh, Evan Lee, Jeneen Frei Njootli, Other Sights,
Pratchaya Phinthong, Susan Point, Samuel Roy-Bois, Kathy Slade,
Laura Wee Láy Láq and Lawrence Paul Yuxweluptun]The Structure of Smoke is curated by Melanie O’Brian and Tania Willard and made possible with the generous support of the Canada Council for the Arts, the Province of British Columbia through the BC Arts Council and our Belkin Curator’s Forum members.
The Structure of Smoke handout (PDF) features the artists and the work represented in the show.
There are two events left on the calendar (other than the exhibition itself), from the Belkin Gallery’s exhibition page,
Wednesday, 8 Apr 2026 at 2 pm
Concert at the Belkin: The Structure of Smoke
Join us on Wednesday, 8 April 2026 at 2 pm for a concert by UBC School of Music Contemporary Players inspired by the current exhibition, The Structure of Smoke. Led by Director Paolo Bortolussi with support from Joanne Na, this graduate and undergraduate student ensemble from the UBC School of Music will animate the gallery for an afternoon program celebrating themes and responding to chosen works from this exhibition.
All are welcome and admission is free.
Saturday, 11 Apr 2026, 10 am to 4 pm
Room 105, Lasserre Building, 6333 Memorial Road, UBC
Gathering: Smoke Forecast
Please join us for Smoke Forecast, a one-day gathering that foregrounds artistic, embodied and community-engaged practices to approach fire and climate justice. Contextualized by the Belkin’s current exhibition The Structure of Smoke, which problematizes the poetic, structural and political aspects of fires through the work of sixteen contemporary artists, Smoke Forecast will begin from our own experiences in the places we call home, and our felt connections to place and each other. Can we tap into artistic, bodily and otherwise knowledges and community connections to weather the crises on our doorstep, together?
Seeking to complicate the contradictions of wildness and domestication, shelter and vulnerability, technological progress and social control, the gathering will engage arts-based methodologies for developing richer climate change knowledges, where community members are also co-producers of this knowledge.
The day will include two panels, a walkshop, lunch and an exhibition tour with artists, theorists and community practitioners to highlight ecological and Indigenous knowledges on wildfire in a time of climate change.
Smoke Forecast is free and open to all, but space is limited. Please RSVP by 7 April 2026.
Program
10 am: Welcome
10:15-11:15 am: Wildfire, Smoke, Creativity and Grief Taylor Baptiste, Clint Burnham and Liz Toohey-Wiese, moderated by Amy Harris
11:30 am-1 pm: Forest/Weather: A Climate Justice Walkshop
Elee Kraljii Gardiner, Astrida Neimanis, χʷəy̓χʷiq̓tən/ Audrey Siegl and Ruby Singh
Please dress for the weather; while the walk will be slow and gentle, it will be outdoors1-2 pm: Lunch
2-3 pm: Developer Lightning Lorna Brown, Amber Frid-Jimenez and Samuel Roy-Bois, moderated by Melanie O’Brian
3 pm: Exhibition Tour
Curatorial tour of The Structure of Smoke at the Belkin with Melanie O’Brian and Tania WillardSmoke Forecast is organized by the Belkin, Astrida Neimanis and Amy Harris, with additional support from the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, the UBC Centre for Climate Justice and the UBC Department of Art History, Visual Art and Theory.
…
Morris and Helen Belkin Art Gallery
University of British Columbia
1825 Main Mall
Vancouver, British Columbia,
Canada V6T 1Z2 Map
xʷməθkʷəy̍əm | Musqueam TerritoryContact
Telephone: +1 (604) 822-2759
Email: belkin.gallery@ubc.ca
Happy Easter! Joyeuses Pâques!
